The Coming Crisis Few Are Talking About: Canada’s Ageing Population
Gabrielle Gallant is the Director of Policy at the National Institute on Ageing
David Coletto is Founder and CEO of polling firm Abacus Data.
Canada stands on the brink of a demographic transformation that will redefine our societal landscape – a massive change that is nearly upon us, but almost completely absent from the tariff-dominated discussions and debates in the Canadian election. We are rapidly approaching "super-aged" status, with older adults aged 65 and older already outnumbering children under 15. By 2030, nearly a quarter of Canadians will be older adults. This seismic shift raises some important questions: are we prepared for the demands an ageing population will place on government services? Are our political leaders ready to address this reality?
The numbers are stark. In 2016, 17% of Canada’s population was over 65. By 2030, that figure is projected to reach nearly 25%. Meanwhile, our healthcare and housing systems are already struggling to keep up. The shortage of long-term care (LTC) spaces, a crisis in affordable housing, and mounting pressures on the publicly funded retirement security system are only set to worsen. Without proactive policies, Canada faces a future where ageing Canadians lack access to basic services and financial security.
An ageing population means a surge in demand for healthcare services. Canada is already experiencing a shortage of long-term care beds, home care providers, and geriatric specialists. In some provinces, waitlists for LTC beds stretch for years, leaving families scrambling for alternatives. Workforce challenges are common across the country: Canada does not have enough doctors, specialists, nurses, home care providers or personal support workers. This will be made worse as ageing health professionals retire and leave the workforce. A demographic double whammy so to speak.
Rising healthcare costs will also challenge provincial budgets. The federal government’s health transfers will need to grow accordingly — and those federal-provincial conversations are always more time-consuming and contentious than anticipated. Some provinces are increasingly looking to privatized services to bridge the gap. If governments fail to act, ageing Canadians could face diminished care and increased out-of-pocket costs.
Our rapidly ageing population is in desperate need of age-friendly housing, but Canada is woefully unprepared. Many older adults wish to "age in place," yet they face a lack of accessible, affordable housing options. Downsizing into smaller homes or older adult-friendly communities remains a challenge due to low supply and high costs. Similarly, beds in retirement residences are costly with long waitlists. Governments must take a more active role in building housing solutions to meet these needs, and at the same time, they should take a hard look at the need for public infrastructure (transit, sidewalks and the rest of our built environment) to adapt to an ageing population.
As the Baby Boomer generation begins to retire, more Canadians than ever before in our history will be drawing on programs like the Canada Pension Plan, Old Age Security and the Guaranteed Income Supplement while fewer workers contribute. OAS and GIS are crucial for low-income older adults, and while the programs have successfully lifted many older adults out of poverty, historic enhancements have been piecemeal – leading to a system in need of modernization.
This is especially critical for the most vulnerable older adults — often single women who rent their homes, according to the NIA’s Ageing in Canada Survey — who are already struggling with rising living costs, which hit older adults on fixed incomes the hardest.
Political leaders should be prioritizing financial security for retirees — yet these conversations have been largely absent from the 2025 election dialogue. A notable exception to this is the Conservative Party of Canada promises to raise the RRSP age limit and increase the tax-free earnings threshold for older adults, measures that the National Institute on Ageing welcomed with the acknowledgement that the poorest older adults are least likely to benefit from these changes.
Older Canadians are a formidable electoral force. They turn out to vote in higher numbers and will soon make up an even larger share of the electorate. Publicly available Elections Canada data shows that voter turnout gradually increases across age groups, from the youngest to oldest voters and tends to be highest among older adults. Canadians aged 65-74 have the highest turnout: three-quarters of them voted in the 2021 general election. The age cohort with the next highest rate of voting turnout is the decade heading into retirement, with almost 70% of Canadians 55-64 voting in the last election.
With Trump’s tariff war fueling economic uncertainty, Canada must prioritize long-term planning for its ageing population. How we prepare for and manage this demographic certainty will shape the future of Canada – not just for older Canadians but for all of us.