Alberta's CPP exit involves more than just an asset transfer number — it brings a matrix of risks, too

By Doug Chandler and Bonnie-Jeanne MacDonald

Published in the Financial Post, Nov. 15, 2023

At a meeting of federal and provincial finance ministers this month, Chrystia Freeland, Canada’s minister of finance, wisely agreed to refer the Alberta proposal to withdraw from the Canada Pension Plan (CPP) to Canada’s chief actuary. She said she will ask the chief actuary to determine the asset transfer from the CPP to a new Alberta pension plan based on a reasonable interpretation of the legislation. Federal and provincial officials will work together to determine the precise scope of the work.

Engaging the chief actuary is the best path forward — but asking the right questions is critical.

The problems with the 53 per cent asset transfer estimate 

Until now, as discussed in our earlier article, the obstacle to informed debate has been uncertainty around the size of the asset transfer. In addition to the challenge of interpreting the legislation, there are significant problems with the data that Alberta’s consultants used to determine that Alberta would be entitled to 53 per cent of the entire CPP fund. The allocation of CPP benefits and contributions depends on the province of employment, but the only readily available data were by province of residence, leading to data errors whenever Canadians move from province to province or commute across provincial boundaries for work.

Many Canadians have said Alberta’s number doesn’t make sense, given that the province accounts for only about 17 per cent of CPP contributions. They question the appropriateness of applying an antiquated formula conceived for a different set of circumstances half a century ago. But to arrive at an asset transfer number as low as 17 per cent of the CPP assets would require more than a reinterpretation of the existing legislation: It would require disregarding the legislation.